A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending January 12, 2012
A Digest of debkafile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending January 12, 2012
A Digest of debkafile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending January 12, 2012
Saudi Arabia demands a precise, unequivocal US declaration of intent to prevent a nuclear Iran by a military strike if necessary. Riyadh doesn’t trust sanctions to do the job – or Barak Obama to stick to the course of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites without wavering.
A US intelligence report has advised Barack Obama that Iran may be ripe for regime change owing to the bitter infighting at the top and a plunging economy which may herald famine at around election time in March. But Tehran will not budge on its radical military and nuclear policies as long as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in charge.
The US and Israel, while bound tightly by military bonds, are at loggerheads over Iran. The Obama administration wants to cut Israel out of military action against Iran’s nuclear sites and prevent it hitting back for an Iranian reprisal. Israel is withholding a commitment to abstain from striking Iran unilaterally.
The unattributed killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan last Wednesday, Jan. 11, was the subject of an angry phone call from US President Barack Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the next day, debkafile reports.
US President Barack Obama is busy aligning Middle East allies with the next US steps on Iran. Contributing to the mounting sense in Washington of an approaching US-Iranian confrontation, the Pentagon is substantially building up its combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait – two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit – and keeping two aircraft carriers in the region.
Iran’s Ali Larijani told Turkish leaders in Ankara that his country is prepared to take on any attacks and may go public on a nuclear weapon.
A triangular bond is formed by Israel, Nicosia and Athens for joint gas field exploration and production secured by the shared umbrella of the Israeli Navy. Moscow and Rome are angling for contracts to build and operate the future pipeline to Europe, which is looking forward to a new source of energy. The Unites States holds the edge in the bidding.
Forty-eight hours after Iran
When IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi accused Iran and Hizballah Wednesday, Jan. 11of of supplying Bashar Assad with arms for suppressing protest, Turkey had just closed the Iranian corridor carrying those arms through its territory after its contribution to the Syrian army’s success in beating down Hama, Homs and Idlib. debkafile discloses that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned Tehran that Ankara would not tolerate a nuclear Iran. It would retaliate by posting NATO troops on the Iranian border.
The first exclusive rundown on US, Saudi and Israeli war preparations against Iran is offered in the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly out next Friday. This issue also studies the points of consensus and dispute among the three on goals and priorities: The US and Saudi Arabia are set to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, whereas the US and Israel focus on curtailing Iran’s work on a nuclear bomb. Military coordination is marred by mistrust. So Riyadh and Jerusalem are capable of going it alone.
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Iran has crossed another red line in its drive for a nuclear weapon with
US, Russian, French and British air and naval forces are gathering around the Syrian and Iranian coasts on guard for fresh developments at the two Middle East flashpoints. The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov put in earlier than planned at Syria’s Tartus port Sunday, Jan. 8, together with two more Russian warships. British and French
Tehran plans an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, debkafile reports. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the clamor raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran’s fortified Fordo bunker-site. Yet, according to a Tel Aviv University think tank scenario, Israel is resigned to a nuclear Iran and would accept a US defense pact instead of retaliating. debkafile’s Washington sources refute this:
Washington and Jerusalem were dismayed to discover last week that Egypt’s transitional military rulers (SCAF) were preparing to drop the reins of government and hand them over – lock, stock and barrel, including the armed forces – to civilian rule, i.e., the Muslim Brotherhood, at the earliest opportunity. By staying mute while this process ripened, Israel emboldened Muslim Brotherhood leaders to reiterate that they were not bound by any pledges to Washington to uphold the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.
Against Tehran’s bid to dictate the Persian Gulf’s rules of navigation, the US and GCC are preparing to fight together or separately against any attempts to prevent free movement through the oil route. They would aim to recapture the three Persian Gulf islands held by Iran, which are the key to controlling the Strait of Hormuz traffic.
The first of 9,000 incoming US troops have arrived in Israel – not just for the joint Austere Challenge 12 exercise but for a longer stay. They are part of the joint US-Israel deployment ready for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. A US aircraft carrier will soon
The military rulers of Egypt are upending President Obama’s plans for Egypt by bringing forward the handover of power ahead of the formulation of a democratic constitution and the election of a moderate president. Power would then go straight to the Muslim Brotherhood. To save the day, Washington hopes to handpick an acceptable president. Omar Suleiman is mentioned.
Libyans see their revolution has fallen off track, their transitional leader Abdel-Jalil predicting a slide into civil war as former rebel militias fight it out in the streets and oil deals transacted by ministers who offer no accounting to ordinary citizens.
Kurdistan’s regional president Masoud Barzani claims America has betrayed the Kurds and left them at the prey of Iraq’s Shiite prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has already cut off oil revenues due to the Kurdish republic under a sealed and signed accord.
A Digest of debkafile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Two Weeks Ending January 5, 2012