Tehran is kicking back hard for Barack Obama’s three-prong anti-Iran warfronts in the economic, covert and allied spheres. After having its horizon for expansion shrunk to its front door in the Persian Gulf, Iran’s rulers are looking for trouble, hoping to provoke a limited military clash with the United States.
In another heated escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran Tuesday, Jan. 3, threatened to take action if the US aircraft carrier USS Stennis, which “moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill returns to the Persian Gulf.” Army chief Lt. Gen. Ataolla Salehi said:” Iran will not repeat this warning.” It is hard to see Washington caving in
Armed US-Iranian hostilities
Military tensions are building up around Syria’s borders. Wednesday, Jan. 4, Turkish military sources reported an Israeli Eitan drone hovering for four hours over the Turkish Hawk Brigade 14 stationed on the Syrian border at Kirikhan in the Hatay district – the expected jumping-off point for any foreign military intervention in Syria.
The armies of Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council states stood ready Thursday Jan. 5, for Washington to stand up to Iranian threats and send an aircraft carrier or several warships through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.
On the last day of 2011, US President Barack Obama Saturday signed into law measures penalizing foreign financial institutions doing business with Iran’s central bank, Bank Markazi – the toughest sanctions yet for Iran’s program for developing a nuclear weapon. In recent weeks, Tehran has repeatedly warned that the signing of this measure would be deemed an act of war and elicit drastic steps including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
By a media trick, Tehran proved its claim that closing the Strait of Hormuz is as “easy as drinking water,” debkafile reports.
As Arab League monitors fail in their mission to curb brutal regime violence in Syria and the ten-month popular defiance continues to rage, President Bashar Assad is digging in for a full-scale civil war:
Monday night, Jan. 2, Al Qaeda claimed to have established its first Jerusalem operational cell calling it the “Sunni Youth Movement Cell in Greater Jerusalem.” Bulletin No. 1 with details of the organization and its targets was promised in the next few days. debkafile’s counter-terror sources report Israeli security services are taking the development very seriously. They tie it in with Palestinian plans for a West Bank uprising and the jihadist trend spreading through Palestinian centers in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Dep. Chief of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Gen. Hossein Salami Thursday, Dec. 29, warned: “The United States is in no position to tell Tehran what to do in the Strait of Hormuz. Any threat will be responded [to] by threat.” Earlier, a US air carrier entered the Sea of Oman where Iran is conducting a big naval drill.
Qatar, encouraged by its successful participation in the campaign to overthrow Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, has established a Sunni Arab intervention force to expedite the drive for Syrian President Bashar Assad’s ouster, debkafile’s military sources report. The new, highly mobile force has boosted the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army with 2,500 ex-Libyan and active Iraqi terrorists and is commanded by the Libyan ex-al Qaeda militia commander Abdel Hakim Belhaj. Israel should be concerned that the new force may try and reach Gaza.
Without informing US or Israeli security coordinators, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas Tuesday, Dec. 27 suddenly fired the West Bank’s top security officer Maj. Gen. Diab el-Ali and replaced him with military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Nidal Dokhan. debkafile reveals this followed a deal with Khaled Meshaal to restore Hamas to the West Bank, retool the PNSF and mount a new anti-Israel “resistance” campaign: mass demonstrations are to smash through West Bank barriers, storm into Israel and break into Jewish settlements.
Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi Monday, Dec. 26, replied to Sunday’s debkafile report which revealed Tehran’s plan to use its big 10-day naval drill east of the Strait of Hormuz to test its vaunted cyber intelligence prowess against US warships. He said Iran has great capabilities in “all fields of national defense, including the use of intelligence drones.” The Islamic Republic, he said, could employ aerial drones to counter any potential US-led covert war. But he did not refer to a full-scale war offensive.
Cypriot President Demetris Christofias has warned Turkey to stop its warships shelling the strip of water dividing the Cypriot and Israeli gas exploration zones in the eastern Mediterranean.
debkafile’s military forces report that Wednesday, Dec. 21, Turkish warships began turning their guns on the narrow strip dividing Israel’s Leviathan gas field from Block 12 of Cyprus’s Exclusive Economic Zone-EEZ. Estimates of the sizes of the two fields have been substantially upped of late. Both see prospects of becoming major gas suppliers to Europe.
Hours after US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told CBS that Iran could build a nuclear bomb in a year or less, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, issued a warning: “Iran is playing a dangerous game that could ensnare the Middle East, the Middle East and others into conflict and a renewed arms race. Don’t push it.” The loss of the drone is not the end of US efforts, he said, adding: “America is sharing intelligence with Israel.”
Barack Obama set about tightening US cooperation with Israel after discovering Iran had embarked on nuclear weaponization. He was persuaded by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak that there was no time to lose for eradicating Iran’s nuclear program – hence the White House flip-flop on attack Iran.
“Despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, they have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less,” said US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in a CBS interview Tuesday, Dec. 20 marking a radical change in US administration policy. “That’s a red line for us and that’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis,” he said. Instead of warning Israel against striking Iran, Panetta said: “If we have to do it we will deal with it.”
Gulf rulers led by Saudi Arabia say that by packing up its bags and leaving, the US military abandoned Iraq the country to an Iranian power grab led by Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and released its sectarian demons. They are therefore determined to go it alone against Iran.
As NATO cargo planes airlifted Libyan fighters to join the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army units in Turkey, Syrian forces armed with Russian spy satellite intelligence waylaid FSA rebels and deserters, killing them where they stood. A large-scale exercise prepares Syrian army to repel a combined offensive.
A Digest of debkafile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in the Week Ending December 22, 2011